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Kocaelispor vs F. Karagumruk Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Kocaelispor

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

F. Karagumruk

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-110.4%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-112.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 50.0% 2.00 -6.6%

Draw 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

Away win 25.1% 27.4% 3.65 -5.0%

Over 2.5 35.1% 47.6% 2.10 -26.3%

Over 3.5 12.9% 26.3% 3.80 -30.6%

BTTS 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1✓ 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kocaelispor1.2

F. Karagumruk0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KOCAELISPOR · PPG 1.44

F. KARAGUMRUK · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

Kocaelispor (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -6.6%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.3%

F. Karagumruk (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kocaelispor face F. Karagumruk in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kocaelispor a 47% chance, the draw 28% and F. Karagumruk 25%, so Kocaelispor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kocaelispor and 0.7 for F. Karagumruk (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kocaelispor are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.38 for F. Karagumruk. This match finished 0-1.

Kocaelispor vs F. Karagumruk Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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