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Goztepe vs Gaziantep Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Goztepe

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gaziantep

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.3%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.7%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 66.2% 1.51 -23.0%

Draw 26.4% 23.8% 4.20 +6.5%

Away win 22.6% 16.9% 5.90 +20.0%

Over 2.5 46.5% 58.8% 1.70 -20.9%

Over 3.5 23.1% 35.7% 2.80 -21.2%

BTTS 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goztepe1.6

Gaziantep0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GOZTEPE · PPG 1.75

GAZIANTEP · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Goztepe (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -23.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.5%

Gaziantep (A) 22.6%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goztepe face Gaziantep in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goztepe a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Gaziantep 23%, so Goztepe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Goztepe and 0.8 for Gaziantep (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goztepe are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.06 for Gaziantep. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Goztepe vs Gaziantep Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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