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Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Genclerbirligi

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kasimpasa

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-110.7%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.2%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.2%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 41.7% 2.40 +6.1%

Draw 29.4% 31.7% 3.15 -4.4%

Away win 26.4% 33.8% 2.96 -13.1%

Over 2.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 26.3% 3.80 -18.5%

BTTS 51.1% 55.6% 1.80 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.1%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genclerbirligi1.2

Kasimpasa1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GENCLERBIRLIGI · PPG 1.38

KASIMPASA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Genclerbirligi (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.1%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.4%

Kasimpasa (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genclerbirligi face Kasimpasa in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genclerbirligi a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Kasimpasa 26%, so Genclerbirligi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Genclerbirligi and 1.0 for Kasimpasa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genclerbirligi are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Kasimpasa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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