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F. Karagumruk vs Eyupspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

F. Karagumruk

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Eyupspor

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-110.5%0-23.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-17.7%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 52.6% 1.90 -9.9%

Draw 30.1% 29.4% 3.40 +2.3%

Away win 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.0%

Over 2.5 31.0% 50.0% 2.00 -38.0%

Over 3.5 13.4% 28.6% 3.50 -53.1%

BTTS 36.6% 55.6% 1.80 -34.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob36.6%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

F. Karagumruk1.2

Eyupspor0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.4%

Form & verdict PPG

F. KARAGUMRUK · PPG 1.07

EYUPSPOR · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

F. Karagumruk (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -9.9%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +2.3%

Eyupspor (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

F. Karagumruk face Eyupspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Karagumruk a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Eyupspor 23%, so F. Karagumruk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for F. Karagumruk and 0.7 for Eyupspor (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Karagumruk are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.64 for Eyupspor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 1-2.

F. Karagumruk vs Eyupspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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