Kasimpasa vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 32 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu· Istanbul Sunday, May 3, 2026 17:00

Kasimpasa PPG 1.13

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Kocaelispor PPG 0.87

Draw· +6.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Kasimpasa face Kocaelispor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kasimpasa a 37% chance, the draw 34% and Kocaelispor 30%, so Kasimpasa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kasimpasa and 1.0 for Kocaelispor (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kasimpasa are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.87 for Kocaelispor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.5%

Odds: 2.22 EV: -19.0%

Draw 33.9%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +6.8%

Away 29.7%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -2.0%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 35.2% Odds: 2.35 -17.3%

Over 3.5 16.2% Odds: 4.50 -27.1%

BTTS 44.2% Odds: 2.00 -11.6%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Kasimpasa

1.12

Kocaelispor

0.99

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away POOR (0.87)