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Kasimpasa vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:00

Kasimpasa

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Kocaelispor

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-112.0%0-25.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.4%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.6%2-17.5%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 45.0% 2.22 -19.0%

Draw 33.9% 31.7% 3.15 +6.8%

Away win 29.7% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Over 2.5 35.2% 42.6% 2.35 -17.3%

Over 3.5 16.2% 22.2% 4.50 -27.1%

BTTS 44.2% 50.0% 2.00 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.2%

D 34% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kasimpasa1.1

Kocaelispor1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KASIMPASA · PPG 1.13

KOCAELISPOR · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

44%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Kasimpasa (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -19.0%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +6.8%

Kocaelispor (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kasimpasa face Kocaelispor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kasimpasa a 37% chance, the draw 34% and Kocaelispor 30%, so Kasimpasa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kasimpasa and 1.0 for Kocaelispor (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kasimpasa are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.87 for Kocaelispor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Kasimpasa vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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