F. Karagumruk vs Genclerbirligi Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 32 Ataturk Olimpiyat· Istanbul Sunday, May 3, 2026 17:00

F. Karagumruk PPG 1.00

1-0 HIT CS3

Genclerbirligi PPG 0.40

Draw· +3.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

F. Karagumruk face Genclerbirligi in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Karagumruk a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Genclerbirligi 32%, so F. Karagumruk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for F. Karagumruk and 1.1 for Genclerbirligi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Karagumruk are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Genclerbirligi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.7%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -10.8%

Draw 31.9%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +3.7%

Away 32.3%

Odds: 2.75 EV: -11.2%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.8% Odds: 2.00 -16.4%

Over 3.5 21.2% Odds: 3.50 -25.8%

BTTS 49.8% Odds: 1.73 -13.9%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

F. Karagumruk

1.21

Genclerbirligi

1.14

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.40)