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F. Karagumruk vs Genclerbirligi Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:00

F. Karagumruk

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Genclerbirligi

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.9%0-26.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.5%1-113.1%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-18.0%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 40.0% 2.50 -10.8%

Draw 31.9% 30.8% 3.25 +3.7%

Away win 32.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

Over 2.5 41.8% 50.0% 2.00 -16.4%

Over 3.5 21.2% 28.6% 3.50 -25.8%

BTTS 49.8% 57.8% 1.73 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.8%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 11.5%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

F. Karagumruk1.2

Genclerbirligi1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.2%

Form & verdict PPG

F. KARAGUMRUK · PPG 1.00

GENCLERBIRLIGI · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

F. Karagumruk (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +3.7%

Genclerbirligi (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

F. Karagumruk face Genclerbirligi in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Karagumruk a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Genclerbirligi 32%, so F. Karagumruk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for F. Karagumruk and 1.1 for Genclerbirligi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Karagumruk are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Genclerbirligi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 1-0.

F. Karagumruk vs Genclerbirligi Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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