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Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:00

Antalyaspor

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Alanyaspor

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-110.0%0-27.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.8%1-112.4%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.7%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 32.8% 3.05 -4.5%

Draw 29.8% 30.3% 3.30 -1.7%

Away win 39.0% 43.9% 2.28 -11.1%

Over 2.5 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Over 3.5 27.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.5%

BTTS 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0✓ 7.1%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antalyaspor1.2

Alanyaspor1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTALYASPOR · PPG 1.00

ALANYASPOR · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Antalyaspor (H) 31.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -4.5%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.7%

Alanyaspor (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antalyaspor face Alanyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antalyaspor a 31% chance, the draw 30% and Alanyaspor 39%, so Alanyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Antalyaspor and 1.4 for Alanyaspor (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antalyaspor are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.87 for Alanyaspor. This match finished 0-0.

Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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