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B. Gracanica vs Tomislav Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

B. Gracanica

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Tomislav

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.3%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.1%1-113.1%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% — — —

Draw 32.2% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 39.6% — — —

Over 3.5 19.4% — — —

BTTS 47.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.4%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

B. Gracanica1.3

Tomislav1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

B. GRACANICA · PPG 1.40

TOMISLAV · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=40.6%

Win probability 1X2

B. Gracanica (H) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tomislav (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

B. Gracanica face Tomislav in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives B. Gracanica a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Tomislav 27%, so B. Gracanica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for B. Gracanica and 1.0 for Tomislav (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, B. Gracanica are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Tomislav. This match finished 2-2.

B. Gracanica vs Tomislav Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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