San Donato vs Foligno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Italy - Serie D - Girone E Group E - 32 Stadio Comunale Pianigiani· Tavarnelle Val di Pesa Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

San Donato PPG 1.13

1-0 HIT CS2

Foligno PPG 1.13

Home· +4.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

San Donato face Foligno in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Donato a 39% chance, the draw 29% and Foligno 32%, so San Donato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Donato and 1.0 for Foligno (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Donato are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.13 for Foligno. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.4%

Odds: 2.65 EV: +4.4%

Draw 29.0%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -13.0%

Away 31.6%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -22.6%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.9% Odds: 2.30 -12.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 44.4% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✔

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

San Donato

1.18

Foligno

1.02

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5/Under 68%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 59%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.13)