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San Donato vs Foligno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

San Donato

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Foligno

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.3%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 37.7% 2.65 +4.4%

Draw 29.0% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

Away win 31.6% 40.8% 2.45 -22.6%

Over 2.5 37.9% 43.5% 2.30 -12.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 44.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.4%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0✓ 13.0%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Donato1.2

Foligno1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DONATO · PPG 1.13

FOLIGNO · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

San Donato (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +4.4%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.0%

Foligno (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Donato face Foligno in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Donato a 39% chance, the draw 29% and Foligno 32%, so San Donato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Donato and 1.0 for Foligno (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Donato are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.13 for Foligno. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 1-0.

San Donato vs Foligno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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