Prato vs Grosseto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Italy - Serie D - Girone E Group E - 32 Stadio Lungobisenzio· Prato Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Prato PPG 2.33

1-0 HIT CS2

Grosseto PPG 2.27

Away· +14.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Prato face Grosseto in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prato a 39% chance, the draw 28% and Grosseto 33%, so Prato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Prato and 1.1 for Grosseto (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prato are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.27 for Grosseto. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.9%

Odds: 2.30 EV: -10.5%

Draw 27.8%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -29.1%

Away 33.2%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +14.5%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.2% Odds: 2.05 -13.5%

Over 3.5 21.4% Odds: — —

BTTS 48.0% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✔

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Prato

1.24

Grosseto

1.13

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5/Under 68%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 59%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.27)