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Prato vs Grosseto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Prato

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Grosseto

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.5%0-25.9%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.6%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-18.1%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.0%3-13.4%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 43.5% 2.30 -10.5%

Draw 27.8% 39.2% 2.55 -29.1%

Away win 33.2% 29.0% 3.45 +14.5%

Over 2.5 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

Over 3.5 21.4% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

H 39% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0✓ 11.6%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prato1.2

Grosseto1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PRATO · PPG 2.33

GROSSETO · PPG 2.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.27)

Win probability 1X2

Prato (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -10.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -29.1%

Grosseto (A) 33.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prato face Grosseto in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prato a 39% chance, the draw 28% and Grosseto 33%, so Prato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Prato and 1.1 for Grosseto (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prato are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.27 for Grosseto. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Prato vs Grosseto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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