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Gavorrano vs Orvietana Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Gavorrano

PPG 1.13 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Orvietana

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-19.8%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.5%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 40.0% 2.50 +15.0%

Draw 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -15.7%

Away win 25.9% 39.2% 2.55 -34.0%

Over 2.5 38.7% 44.4% 2.25 -12.9%

Over 3.5 18.8% — — —

BTTS 44.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.0%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 0–1✓ 9.8%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gavorrano1.3

Orvietana0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GAVORRANO · PPG 1.13

ORVIETANA · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Gavorrano (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +15.0%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.7%

Orvietana (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gavorrano face Orvietana in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gavorrano a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Orvietana 26%, so Gavorrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gavorrano and 0.9 for Orvietana (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gavorrano are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.13 for Orvietana. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Gavorrano vs Orvietana Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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