FC Siena vs Montevarchi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Italy - Serie D - Girone E Group E - 32 Stadio Comunale Artemio Franchi - Montepaschi Arena· Siena Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

FC Siena PPG 1.73

0-0 HIT CS3

Montevarchi PPG 1.40

Away· +148.4% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Siena face Montevarchi in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Siena a 68% chance, the draw 22% and Montevarchi 11%, so FC Siena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Siena and 0.6 for Montevarchi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Siena are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.40 for Montevarchi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +148.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 67.5%

Odds: 1.16 EV: -21.7%

Draw 21.7%

Odds: 6.00 EV: +30.2%

Away 10.8%

Odds: 23.00 EV: +148.4%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.7% Odds: 1.65 -31.2%

Over 3.5 21.1% Odds: 2.60 -45.1%

BTTS 35.5% Odds: 2.65 -5.9%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✔

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Siena

1.79

Montevarchi

0.56

Model SuggestionHome -21.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -21.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+148.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)