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FC Siena vs Montevarchi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

FC Siena

PPG 1.73 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Montevarchi

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-15.3%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.1%1-19.5%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.5%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-15.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.5% 86.2% 1.16 -21.7%

Draw 21.7% 16.7% 6.00 +30.2%

Away win 10.8% 4.3% 23.00 +148.4%

Over 2.5 41.7% 60.6% 1.65 -31.2%

Over 3.5 21.1% 38.5% 2.60 -45.1%

BTTS 35.5% 37.7% 2.65 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob35.5%

H 68% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0✓ 9.5%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Siena1.8

Montevarchi0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SIENA · PPG 1.73

MONTEVARCHI · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

FC Siena (H) 67.5%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV -21.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +30.2%

Montevarchi (A) 10.8%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV +148.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Siena face Montevarchi in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Siena a 68% chance, the draw 22% and Montevarchi 11%, so FC Siena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Siena and 0.6 for Montevarchi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Siena are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.40 for Montevarchi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +148.4%. This match finished 0-0.

FC Siena vs Montevarchi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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