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Trabzonspor vs Goztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Trabzonspor

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Goztepe

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.1%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.7%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 57.8% 1.73 -26.0%

Draw 30.6% 27.0% 3.70 +13.2%

Away win 26.6% 22.0% 4.55 +21.0%

Over 2.5 44.5% 55.6% 1.80 -19.9%

Over 3.5 23.3% 33.3% 3.00 -30.1%

BTTS 51.1% 57.8% 1.73 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.1%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trabzonspor1.4

Goztepe1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TRABZONSPOR · PPG 2.13

GOZTEPE · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Trabzonspor (H) 42.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -26.0%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +13.2%

Goztepe (A) 26.6%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trabzonspor face Goztepe in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trabzonspor a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Goztepe 27%, so Trabzonspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Trabzonspor and 1.1 for Goztepe (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trabzonspor are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.53 for Goztepe. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Trabzonspor vs Goztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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