Samsunspor vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 32 Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu· Samsun Saturday, May 2, 2026 17:00

Samsunspor PPG 1.47

4-1 MISS

Galatasaray PPG 2.27

Draw· +13.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Samsunspor face Galatasaray in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samsunspor a 20% chance, the draw 28% and Galatasaray 52%, so Galatasaray are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Samsunspor and 1.7 for Galatasaray (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samsunspor are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 2.27 for Galatasaray. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 20.1%

Odds: 5.10 EV: +2.5%

Draw 27.6%

Odds: 4.10 EV: +13.2%

Away 52.3%

Odds: 1.58 EV: -17.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.8% Odds: 1.62 -19.3%

Over 3.5 27.9% Odds: 2.55 -28.8%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.65 -13.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Samsunspor

0.98

Galatasaray

1.69

Model SuggestionBTTS -13.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -13.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+13.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)