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Samsunspor vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Samsunspor

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Galatasaray

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-111.7%0-29.9%0-35.6%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.8%1-111.5%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.3%2-15.6%2-24.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.1% 19.6% 5.10 +2.5%

Draw 27.6% 24.4% 4.10 +13.2%

Away win 52.3% 63.3% 1.58 -17.4%

Over 2.5 49.8% 61.7% 1.62 -19.3%

Over 3.5 27.9% 39.2% 2.55 -28.8%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samsunspor1.0

Galatasaray1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMSUNSPOR · PPG 1.47

GALATASARAY · PPG 2.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

58%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Samsunspor (H) 20.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +2.5%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +13.2%

Galatasaray (A) 52.3%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samsunspor face Galatasaray in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samsunspor a 20% chance, the draw 28% and Galatasaray 52%, so Galatasaray are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Samsunspor and 1.7 for Galatasaray (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samsunspor are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 2.27 for Galatasaray. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 4-1.

Samsunspor vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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