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Fenerbahce vs Basaksehir Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Fenerbahce

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Basaksehir

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.0%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.5%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 61.3% 1.63 -26.5%

Draw 27.8% 24.4% 4.10 +14.0%

Away win 27.0% 21.5% 4.65 +25.6%

Over 2.5 54.5% 66.7% 1.50 -18.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 44.4% 2.25 -27.6%

BTTS 58.6% 65.4% 1.53 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.6%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenerbahce1.6

Basaksehir1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FENERBAHCE · PPG 2.33

BASAKSEHIR · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Fenerbahce (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -26.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +14.0%

Basaksehir (A) 27.0%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenerbahce face Basaksehir in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenerbahce a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Basaksehir 27%, so Fenerbahce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fenerbahce and 1.2 for Basaksehir (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenerbahce are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Basaksehir. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Fenerbahce vs Basaksehir Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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