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Fenerbahce vs Basaksehir Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Fenerbahce

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Basaksehir

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.0%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.5%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 61.3% 1.63 -26.5%

Draw 27.8% 24.4% 4.10 +14.0%

Away win 27.0% 21.5% 4.65 +25.6%

Over 2.5 54.5% 66.7% 1.50 -18.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 44.4% 2.25 -27.6%

BTTS 58.6% 65.4% 1.53 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.6%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenerbahce1.6

Basaksehir1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FENERBAHCE · PPG 2.33

BASAKSEHIR · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Fenerbahce (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -26.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +14.0%

Basaksehir (A) 27.0%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenerbahce face Basaksehir in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenerbahce a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Basaksehir 27%, so Fenerbahce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fenerbahce and 1.2 for Basaksehir (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenerbahce are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Basaksehir. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Fenerbahce vs Basaksehir Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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