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S. Lubovna vs P. Bystrica Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:00

S. Lubovna

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

P. Bystrica

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.6%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.2%1-111.0%1-27.4%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.8%3-15.1%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 35.1% 2.85 +24.0%

Draw 27.2% 29.0% 3.45 -6.2%

Away win 29.3% 45.5% 2.20 -35.5%

Over 2.5 57.8% 58.8% 1.70 -1.7%

Over 3.5 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Lubovna1.7

P. Bystrica1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

S. LUBOVNA · PPG 1.31

P. BYSTRICA · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

S. Lubovna (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +24.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.2%

P. Bystrica (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Lubovna face P. Bystrica in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Lubovna a 44% chance, the draw 27% and P. Bystrica 29%, so S. Lubovna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for S. Lubovna and 1.3 for P. Bystrica (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Lubovna are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.92 for P. Bystrica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 1-1.

S. Lubovna vs P. Bystrica Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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