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Humenné vs Petržalka Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Humenné

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

UPCOMING

Petržalka

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-112.9%0-29.0%0-34.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.5%2-16.3%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 22.7% 4.40 +7.1%

Draw 26.2% 27.8% 3.60 -3.4%

Away win 48.4% 61.7% 1.62 -21.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 59.9% 1.67 -15.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.7% 2.46 -17.6%

BTTS 50.4% 61.7% 1.62 -18.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 32.9% 3.04 -6.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 62.9% 1.59 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.4%

A 48% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 12.9%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Humenné1.0

Petržalka1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HUMENNÉ · PPG 1.69

PETRŽALKA · PPG 1.89

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.40, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Humenné (H) 25.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +7.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.4%

Petržalka (A) 48.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Humenné face Petržalka in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Humenné a 25% chance, the draw 26% and Petržalka 48%, so Petržalka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Humenné and 1.4 for Petržalka (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Humenné are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.89 for Petržalka. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Humenné vs Petržalka Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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