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MFK Bytča vs Šamorín Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

MFK Bytča

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

Šamorín

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.1%0-27.1%0-34.7%0-4+3.6%1 1-04.8%1-19.6%1-29.5%1-36.3%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.2%2-16.4%2-26.4%2-34.2%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.5%3-12.9%3-22.9%3-31.9%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 14.3% 7.00 +55.9%

Draw 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

Away win 50.2% 73.5% 1.36 -31.7%

Over 2.5 63.8% 61.7% 1.62 +3.4%

Over 3.5 40.9% 40.7% 2.46 +0.6%

BTTS 62.1% 57.1% 1.75 +8.7%

Home O1.5 39.4% 23.0% 4.35 +71.4%

Away O1.5 58.3% 70.4% 1.42 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.1%

A 50% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 2–1 6.4%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MFK Bytča1.3

Šamorín2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MFK BYTČA · PPG 1.31

ŠAMORÍN · PPG 1.82

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.64 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

MFK Bytča (H) 27.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +55.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.1%

Šamorín (A) 50.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -31.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

MFK Bytča face Šamorín in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MFK Bytča a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Šamorín 50%, so Šamorín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for MFK Bytča and 2.0 for Šamorín (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MFK Bytča are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.82 for Šamorín. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +109.2%.

MFK Bytča vs Šamorín Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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