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Este vs Clodiense Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 32 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Este

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Clodiense

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-115.4%0-28.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.4%2-15.8%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.7%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 36.4% 2.75 -20.0%

Draw 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Away win 39.7% 41.7% 2.40 -4.7%

Over 2.5 30.7% 40.0% 2.50 -23.3%

Over 3.5 13.2% — — —

BTTS 38.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob38.2%

A 40% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.4%

#2 0–0 14.4%

#3 1–1✓ 13.4%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Este0.9

Clodiense1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTE · PPG 1.73

CLODIENSE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Este (H) 29.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -20.0%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Clodiense (A) 39.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Este face Clodiense in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Este a 29% chance, the draw 31% and Clodiense 40%, so Clodiense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Este and 1.1 for Clodiense (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Este are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.67 for Clodiense. This match finished 1-1.

Este vs Clodiense Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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