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San Luigi vs Treviso Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

San Luigi

PPG 1.13 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Treviso

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-116.1%0-213.1%0-37.1%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.8%1-111.1%1-29.0%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-02.3%2-13.8%2-23.1%2-31.7%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.6% 24.4% 4.10 -36.0%

Draw 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -24.1%

Away win 59.9% 55.6% 1.80 +7.8%

Over 2.5 40.7% 50.0% 2.00 -18.6%

Over 3.5 20.3% — — —

BTTS 39.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob39.9%

A 60% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 0–2✓ 13.1%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Luigi0.7

Treviso1.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LUIGI · PPG 1.13

TREVISO · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

San Luigi (H) 15.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -36.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -24.1%

Treviso (A) 59.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Luigi face Treviso in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Luigi a 16% chance, the draw 25% and Treviso 60%, so Treviso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for San Luigi and 1.6 for Treviso (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Luigi are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 2.13 for Treviso. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 0-2.

San Luigi vs Treviso Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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