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Portogruaro vs Calvi Noale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Portogruaro

PPG 0.53 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Calvi Noale

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-111.9%0-29.3%0-34.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.8%2-16.1%2-24.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 10.0% 10.00 +143.0%

Draw 25.2% 23.1% 4.33 +9.1%

Away win 50.5% 78.1% 1.28 -35.4%

Over 2.5 47.8% 57.8% 1.73 -17.3%

Over 3.5 26.1% — — —

BTTS 50.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob50.5%

A 50% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portogruaro1.0

Calvi Noale1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTOGRUARO · PPG 0.53

CALVI NOALE · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.53), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Portogruaro (H) 24.3%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +143.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +9.1%

Calvi Noale (A) 50.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portogruaro face Calvi Noale in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portogruaro a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Calvi Noale 51%, so Calvi Noale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Portogruaro and 1.6 for Calvi Noale (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portogruaro are averaging 0.53 points per game versus 0.80 for Calvi Noale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +143.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Portogruaro vs Calvi Noale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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