Portogruaro vs Calvi Noale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Italy - Serie D - Girone C Group C - 32 Stadio Pier Giovanni Mecchia· Portogruaro Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Portogruaro PPG 0.53

1-3 MISS

Calvi Noale PPG 0.80

Home· +143.0% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Portogruaro face Calvi Noale in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portogruaro a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Calvi Noale 51%, so Calvi Noale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Portogruaro and 1.6 for Calvi Noale (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portogruaro are averaging 0.53 points per game versus 0.80 for Calvi Noale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +143.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 24.3%

Odds: 10.00 EV: +143.0%

Draw 25.2%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +9.1%

Away 50.5%

Odds: 1.28 EV: -35.4%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.8% Odds: 1.73 -17.3%

Over 3.5 26.1% Odds: — —

BTTS 50.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Portogruaro

1.01

Calvi Noale

1.58

Model SuggestionAway -35.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -35.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+143.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.53), Away POOR (0.80)