Luparense vs Vigasio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Italy - Serie D - Girone C Group C - 33 Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée· San Martino di Lupari Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Luparense PPG 1.25

1-0 HIT CS2

Vigasio PPG 1.00

Over2.5· -2.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Luparense face Vigasio in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luparense a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Vigasio 25%, so Luparense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Luparense and 1.0 for Vigasio (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luparense are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Vigasio. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.0%

Odds: 1.91 EV: -14.1%

Draw 30.2%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -6.4%

Away 24.7%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -9.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 22.8% Odds: — —

BTTS 52.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✔

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Luparense

1.44

Vigasio

0.99

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)