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Luparense vs Vigasio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Luparense

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vigasio

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-18.7%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.5%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.0%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 52.4% 1.91 -14.1%

Draw 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Away win 24.7% 27.4% 3.65 -9.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0✓ 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luparense1.4

Vigasio1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LUPARENSE · PPG 1.25

VIGASIO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Luparense (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -14.1%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Vigasio (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luparense face Vigasio in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luparense a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Vigasio 25%, so Luparense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Luparense and 1.0 for Vigasio (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luparense are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Vigasio. This match finished 1-0.

Luparense vs Vigasio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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