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Gaziantep vs Besiktas Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:00

Gaziantep

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Besiktas

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.6%0-27.1%0-33.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.8%1-111.2%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-17.3%2-26.0%2-33.3%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.9%3-13.2%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 26.7% 3.75 +7.2%

Draw 27.5% 25.0% 4.00 +10.0%

Away win 44.0% 55.2% 1.81 -20.4%

Over 2.5 56.7% 66.7% 1.50 -14.9%

Over 3.5 34.3% 44.4% 2.25 -22.8%

BTTS 60.6% 67.6% 1.48 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.6%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2✓ 7.1%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gaziantep1.3

Besiktas1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GAZIANTEP · PPG 1.33

BESIKTAS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Gaziantep (H) 28.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +7.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +10.0%

Besiktas (A) 44.0%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gaziantep face Besiktas in Turkey - Süper Lig on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gaziantep a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Besiktas 44%, so Besiktas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gaziantep and 1.7 for Besiktas (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gaziantep are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for Besiktas. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Gaziantep vs Besiktas Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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