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Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 17:00

Konyaspor

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Trabzonspor

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.9%0-28.0%0-34.7%0-4+3.2%1 1-06.0%1-110.8%1-29.6%1-35.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.7%2-16.5%2-25.8%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.5%3-12.6%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 33.6% 2.98 -14.2%

Draw 29.8% 28.6% 3.50 +4.3%

Away win 41.5% 45.0% 2.22 -7.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Over 3.5 35.3% 35.7% 2.80 -1.2%

BTTS 58.5% 63.7% 1.57 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.5%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Konyaspor1.2

Trabzonspor1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KONYASPOR · PPG 1.40

TRABZONSPOR · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Konyaspor (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -14.2%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +4.3%

Trabzonspor (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Konyaspor face Trabzonspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Konyaspor a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Trabzonspor 42%, so Trabzonspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Konyaspor and 1.8 for Trabzonspor (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Konyaspor are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.20 for Trabzonspor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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