Besiktas vs F. Karagumruk Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 31 Besiktas Park· Istanbul Monday, April 27, 2026 17:00

Besiktas PPG 2.00

0-0 MISS

F. Karagumruk PPG 0.33

Over3.5· +21.7% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Besiktas face F. Karagumruk in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Besiktas a 70% chance, the draw 21% and F. Karagumruk 9%, so Besiktas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Besiktas and 0.7 for F. Karagumruk (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Besiktas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for F. Karagumruk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 70.2%

Odds: 1.32 EV: -7.3%

Draw 20.6%

Odds: 5.20 EV: +7.1%

Away 9.2%

Odds: 8.40 EV: -22.7%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.53 -7.4%

Over 3.5 51.8% Odds: 2.35 +21.7%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.85 -2.7%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Besiktas

3.03

F. Karagumruk

0.73

Model SuggestionHome -7.3% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-7.3%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus