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Besiktas vs F. Karagumruk Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 17:00

Besiktas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

F. Karagumruk

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Home 74% chance

Model probability 70.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.7%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.1%1-15.2%1-21.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-17.8%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-17.9%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.3%4+-112.6%4+-24.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.2% 75.8% 1.32 -7.3%

Draw 20.6% 19.2% 5.20 +7.1%

Away win 9.2% 11.9% 8.40 -22.7%

Over 2.5 60.5% 65.4% 1.53 -7.4%

Over 3.5 51.8% 42.6% 2.35 +21.7%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 70% / xG 3.0-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 4–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Besiktas3.0

F. Karagumruk0.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 51.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BESIKTAS · PPG 2.00

F. KARAGUMRUK · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

74%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Besiktas (H) 70.2%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -7.3%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +7.1%

F. Karagumruk (A) 9.2%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Besiktas face F. Karagumruk in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Besiktas a 70% chance, the draw 21% and F. Karagumruk 9%, so Besiktas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Besiktas and 0.7 for F. Karagumruk (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Besiktas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for F. Karagumruk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Besiktas vs F. Karagumruk Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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