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Fenerbahce vs Rizespor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Fenerbahce

PPG 2.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rizespor

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLD

// Model verdict

Home 74% chance

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.3%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.9%1-18.0%1-24.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.7%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-18.2%4+-24.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 76.3% 1.31 -10.8%

Draw 17.7% 20.0% 5.00 -11.5%

Away win 14.2% 10.8% 9.30 +32.1%

Over 2.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 44.4% 2.25 +0.1%

BTTS 57.9% 56.5% 1.77 +2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.9%

H 68% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenerbahce2.4

Rizespor1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FENERBAHCE · PPG 2.43

RIZESPOR · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

74%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.43), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fenerbahce (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -10.8%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -11.5%

Rizespor (A) 14.2%

ODDS 9.30 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenerbahce face Rizespor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenerbahce a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Rizespor 14%, so Fenerbahce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Fenerbahce and 1.0 for Rizespor (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenerbahce are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.93 for Rizespor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Fenerbahce vs Rizespor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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