Fenerbahce vs Rizespor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 30 Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu· Istanbul Friday, April 17, 2026 17:00

Fenerbahce PPG 2.43

2-2 MISS

Rizespor PPG 0.93

Away· +32.1% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenerbahce face Rizespor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenerbahce a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Rizespor 14%, so Fenerbahce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Fenerbahce and 1.0 for Rizespor (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenerbahce are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.93 for Rizespor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 68.1%

Odds: 1.31 EV: -10.8%

Draw 17.7%

Odds: 5.00 EV: -11.5%

Away 14.2%

Odds: 9.30 EV: +32.1%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 66.3% Odds: 1.50 -0.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% Odds: 2.25 +0.1%

BTTS 57.9% Odds: 1.77 +2.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Fenerbahce

2.40

Rizespor

1.01

Model SuggestionHome -10.8% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-10.8%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.43), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus