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Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:00

Alanyaspor

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Samsunspor

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.1%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.0%1-112.7%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.9%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 43.9% 2.28 +0.5%

Draw 30.7% 31.3% 3.20 -1.8%

Away win 25.1% 31.7% 3.15 -20.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% 29.0% 3.45 -25.5%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alanyaspor1.4

Samsunspor1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALANYASPOR · PPG 1.33

SAMSUNSPOR · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Alanyaspor (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +0.5%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.8%

Samsunspor (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alanyaspor face Samsunspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alanyaspor a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Samsunspor 25%, so Alanyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alanyaspor and 1.0 for Samsunspor (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alanyaspor are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Samsunspor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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