Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 31 Alanya Oba Stadium· Alanya Monday, April 27, 2026 14:00

Alanyaspor PPG 1.33

2-3 MISS

Samsunspor PPG 1.33

Home· +0.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alanyaspor face Samsunspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alanyaspor a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Samsunspor 25%, so Alanyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alanyaspor and 1.0 for Samsunspor (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alanyaspor are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Samsunspor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.1%

Odds: 2.28 EV: +0.5%

Draw 30.7%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -1.8%

Away 25.1%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -20.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% Odds: 3.45 -25.5%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.73 -9.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alanyaspor

1.40

Samsunspor

0.98

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+0.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)