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Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Galatasaray

PPG 2.47 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fenerbahce

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.5%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.7%1-19.3%1-25.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.6%3-16.8%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 43.9% 2.28 +5.8%

Draw 28.4% 29.4% 3.40 -3.4%

Away win 25.2% 34.0% 2.94 -25.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 60.6% 1.65 -2.6%

Over 3.5 42.0% 38.5% 2.60 +9.2%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galatasaray2.1

Fenerbahce1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GALATASARAY · PPG 2.47

FENERBAHCE · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.47) > Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Galatasaray (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +5.8%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.4%

Fenerbahce (A) 25.2%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galatasaray face Fenerbahce in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galatasaray a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Fenerbahce 25%, so Galatasaray are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Galatasaray and 1.2 for Fenerbahce (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galatasaray are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 2.13 for Fenerbahce. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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