Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 31 Rams Park· Istanbul Sunday, April 26, 2026 17:00

Galatasaray PPG 2.47

3-0 MISS

Fenerbahce PPG 2.13

Over3.5· +9.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Galatasaray face Fenerbahce in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galatasaray a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Fenerbahce 25%, so Galatasaray are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Galatasaray and 1.2 for Fenerbahce (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galatasaray are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 2.13 for Fenerbahce. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.4%

Odds: 2.28 EV: +5.8%

Draw 28.4%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -3.4%

Away 25.2%

Odds: 2.94 EV: -25.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.65 -2.6%

Over 3.5 42.0% Odds: 2.60 +9.2%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.50 -12.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Galatasaray

2.08

Fenerbahce

1.22

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -2.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-2.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.47) > Away EXCELLENT (2.13)