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Genclerbirligi vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

Genclerbirligi

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Kocaelispor

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-112.1%0-25.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-113.2%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.8%2-17.3%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.7%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 41.7% 2.40 -6.6%

Draw 33.6% 31.7% 3.15 +5.8%

Away win 27.5% 33.6% 2.98 -18.1%

Over 2.5 38.0% 44.4% 2.25 -14.5%

Over 3.5 12.9% 23.8% 4.20 -45.8%

BTTS 49.5% 52.6% 1.90 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0✓ 16.0%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genclerbirligi1.1

Kocaelispor0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GENCLERBIRLIGI · PPG 1.27

KOCAELISPOR · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Genclerbirligi (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -6.6%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +5.8%

Kocaelispor (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genclerbirligi face Kocaelispor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genclerbirligi a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Kocaelispor 28%, so Genclerbirligi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Genclerbirligi and 0.8 for Kocaelispor (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genclerbirligi are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.93 for Kocaelispor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Genclerbirligi vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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