Genclerbirligi vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Turkey - Süper Lig Regular Season - 31 Eryaman Stadium· Ankara Sunday, April 26, 2026 11:30

Genclerbirligi PPG 1.27

1-0 HIT CS3

Kocaelispor PPG 0.93

Draw· +5.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Genclerbirligi face Kocaelispor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genclerbirligi a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Kocaelispor 28%, so Genclerbirligi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Genclerbirligi and 0.8 for Kocaelispor (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genclerbirligi are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.93 for Kocaelispor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.9%

Odds: 2.40 EV: -6.6%

Draw 33.6%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +5.8%

Away 27.5%

Odds: 2.98 EV: -18.1%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.0% Odds: 2.25 -14.5%

Over 3.5 12.9% Odds: 4.20 -45.8%

BTTS 49.5% Odds: 1.90 -5.9%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Genclerbirligi

1.10

Kocaelispor

0.82

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.93)