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Goztepe vs Antalyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:00

Goztepe

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Antalyaspor

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2% — a clear edge.

+11.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-15.4%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.2%1-19.4%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.2%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-14.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-13.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% 60.2% 1.66 +11.9%

Draw 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -20.1%

Away win 10.4% 19.2% 5.20 -45.9%

Over 2.5 39.3% 50.0% 2.00 -21.4%

Over 3.5 19.2% 28.6% 3.50 -32.8%

BTTS 33.2% 52.4% 1.91 -36.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob33.2%

H 67% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 2–0✓ 15.9%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goztepe1.7

Antalyaspor0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GOZTEPE · PPG 1.67

ANTALYASPOR · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Goztepe (H) 67.4%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV +11.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -20.1%

Antalyaspor (A) 10.4%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -45.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goztepe face Antalyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goztepe a 67% chance, the draw 22% and Antalyaspor 10%, so Goztepe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Goztepe and 0.5 for Antalyaspor (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goztepe are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.87 for Antalyaspor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Goztepe vs Antalyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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