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Kayserispor vs Rizespor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Kayserispor

PPG 0.86 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Rizespor

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 39.1% — a clear edge.

+43.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-112.8%0-210.8%0-36.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.8%1-111.4%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.0%2-15.1%2-24.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.8% 39.7% 2.52 -50.1%

Draw 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -14.4%

Away win 56.0% 39.1% 2.56 +43.4%

Over 2.5 47.5% 60.6% 1.65 -21.6%

Over 3.5 25.9% 38.2% 2.62 -32.1%

BTTS 48.1% 65.4% 1.53 -26.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.1%

A 56% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.8%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 0–2 10.8%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kayserispor0.9

Rizespor1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAYSERISPOR · PPG 0.86

RIZESPOR · PPG 0.93

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Kayserispor (H) 19.8%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -50.1%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -14.4%

Rizespor (A) 56.0%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +43.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kayserispor face Rizespor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kayserispor a 20% chance, the draw 24% and Rizespor 56%, so Rizespor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kayserispor and 1.7 for Rizespor (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kayserispor are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.93 for Rizespor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +43.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Kayserispor vs Rizespor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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