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Warrenpoint vs Ards Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Relegation Group - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Warrenpoint

PPG 1.41 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ards

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.16)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.7%0-25.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.1%1-112.1%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.5%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 35.7% 2.80 +8.4%

Draw 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -14.2%

Away win 35.6% 46.5% 2.15 -23.5%

Over 2.5 51.4% 62.5% 1.60 -17.8%

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 9.1%

#3 0–1✓ 8.7%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warrenpoint1.4

Ards1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WARRENPOINT · PPG 1.41

ARDS · PPG 1.16

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.16)

Win probability 1X2

Warrenpoint (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +8.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.2%

Ards (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warrenpoint face Ards in Northern-Ireland - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warrenpoint a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Ards 36%, so Warrenpoint are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Warrenpoint and 1.3 for Ards (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warrenpoint are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.16 for Ards. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Warrenpoint vs Ards Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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