Warrenpoint vs Ards Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Northern-Ireland - Championship Relegation Group - 38 Milltown· Warrenpoint Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

Warrenpoint PPG 1.41

0-1 HIT CS3

Ards PPG 1.16

Home· +8.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Warrenpoint face Ards in Northern-Ireland - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warrenpoint a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Ards 36%, so Warrenpoint are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Warrenpoint and 1.3 for Ards (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warrenpoint are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.16 for Ards. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.7%

Odds: 2.80 EV: +8.4%

Draw 25.6%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -14.2%

Away 35.6%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -23.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.4% Odds: 1.60 -17.8%

Over 3.5 29.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 55.4% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✔

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Warrenpoint

1.40

Ards

1.33

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+8.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 83%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 33%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.16)