Today / Northern-Ireland - Championship / Newington vs Loughgall

Newington vs Loughgall Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Promotion Group - 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:45

Newington

PPG 1.95 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Loughgall

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.9%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.4%1-111.2%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-15.0%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 43.5% 2.30 +2.4%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -15.3%

Away win 31.3% 39.2% 2.55 -20.2%

Over 2.5 56.9% 65.4% 1.53 -12.9%

Over 3.5 34.5% 44.4% 2.25 -22.4%

BTTS 59.2% 66.7% 1.50 -11.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.2%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 1–0 8.4%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newington1.6

Loughgall1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWINGTON · PPG 1.95

LOUGHGALL · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.95) vs P(Home)=44.5%

Win probability 1X2

Newington (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +2.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.3%

Loughgall (A) 31.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newington face Loughgall in Northern-Ireland - Championship on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newington a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Loughgall 31%, so Newington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Newington and 1.3 for Loughgall (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newington are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.13 for Loughgall. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Newington vs Loughgall Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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