Newington vs Loughgall Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Northern-Ireland - Championship Promotion Group - 38 Friday, April 24, 2026 18:45

Newington PPG 1.95

2-1 HIT CS2

Loughgall PPG 1.13

Home· +2.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Newington face Loughgall in Northern-Ireland - Championship on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newington a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Loughgall 31%, so Newington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Newington and 1.3 for Loughgall (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newington are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.13 for Loughgall. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.5%

Odds: 2.30 EV: +2.4%

Draw 24.2%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -15.3%

Away 31.3%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -20.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.9% Odds: 1.53 -12.9%

Over 3.5 34.5% Odds: 2.25 -22.4%

BTTS 59.2% Odds: 1.50 -11.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Newington

1.63

Loughgall

1.33

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+2.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.95) vs P(Home)=44.5%