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Armagh City vs Institute Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Relegation Group - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Armagh City

PPG 0.56 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Institute

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 79.1% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-18.3%0-211.4%0-310.4%0-4+14.0%1 1-02.3%1-16.2%1-28.6%1-37.9%1-4+10.6%2 2-00.9%2-12.3%2-23.2%2-33.0%2-4+4.0%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.8%3-30.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 7.6% 8.3% 12.00 -8.8%

Draw 13.3% 17.4% 5.75 -23.5%

Away win 79.1% 85.5% 1.17 -7.4%

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob49.5%

A 79% / xG 0.8-2.8 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.4%

#2 0–3 10.4%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.3%

#5 1–3 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Armagh City0.8

Institute2.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARMAGH CITY · PPG 0.56

INSTITUTE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Armagh City (H) 7.6%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV -8.8%

Draw 13.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -23.5%

Institute (A) 79.1%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Armagh City face Institute in Northern-Ireland - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Armagh City a 8% chance, the draw 13% and Institute 79%, so Institute are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Armagh City and 2.8 for Institute (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Armagh City are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.33 for Institute. This match finished 1-4.

Armagh City vs Institute Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Northern-Ireland - Championship Predictions