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Ballinamallard vs Dundela Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Relegation Group - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Ballinamallard

PPG 1.16 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Dundela

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+16.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.7%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.6%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.2%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 48.8% 2.05 +16.4%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -23.5%

Away win 20.7% 33.9% 2.95 -38.9%

Over 2.5 55.5% 60.6% 1.65 -8.4%

Over 3.5 33.2% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 57% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ballinamallard1.9

Dundela1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BALLINAMALLARD · PPG 1.16

DUNDELA · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.16) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Ballinamallard (H) 56.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +16.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.5%

Dundela (A) 20.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -38.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ballinamallard face Dundela in Northern-Ireland - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ballinamallard a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Dundela 21%, so Ballinamallard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ballinamallard and 1.0 for Dundela (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ballinamallard are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 0.56 for Dundela. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Ballinamallard vs Dundela Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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