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Chanmari vs Diamond Harbour Prediction— India - I-League

Promotion Group - 1 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Chanmari

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Diamond Harbour

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.1%0-25.1%0-34.3%0-4+5.1%1 1-02.6%1-16.5%1-28.2%1-37.0%1-4+8.1%2 2-02.0%2-15.2%2-26.6%2-35.6%2-4+6.5%3 3-01.1%3-12.8%3-23.5%3-33.0%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% — — —

Draw 18.5% — — —

Away win 58.0% — — —

Over 2.5 78.1% — — —

Over 3.5 59.3% — — —

BTTS 73.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob73.5%

A 58% / xG 1.6-2.5 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.2%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chanmari1.6

Diamond Harbour2.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.1% · O3.5 PROB 59.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANMARI · PPG 1.25

DIAMOND HARBOUR · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Chanmari (H) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Diamond Harbour (A) 58.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chanmari face Diamond Harbour in India - I-League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chanmari a 23% chance, the draw 19% and Diamond Harbour 58%, so Diamond Harbour are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chanmari and 2.5 for Diamond Harbour (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chanmari are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.60 for Diamond Harbour. This match finished 0-2.

Chanmari vs Diamond Harbour Prediction— India - I-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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