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Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 4 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Göztepe

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

UPCOMING

Gaziantep FK

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.9%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.1%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 30.1% 26.7% 3.75 +12.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 55.7% 57.8% 1.73 -3.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.6% 1.83 -27.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.7%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Göztepe1.5

Gaziantep FK1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GÖZTEPE · PPG 1.42

GAZIANTEP FK · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Göztepe (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Gaziantep FK (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Göztepe face Gaziantep FK in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Göztepe a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Gaziantep FK 30%, so Göztepe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Göztepe and 1.1 for Gaziantep FK (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Göztepe are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.48 for Gaziantep FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.2%.

Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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