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Rizespor vs Alanyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 4 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Rizespor

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

UPCOMING

Alanyaspor

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.3%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.8%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.7%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 54.1% 1.85 -18.2%

Draw 26.7% 31.3% 3.20 -8.7%

Away win 29.2% 25.0% 4.00 +10.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 39.5% 50.0% 2.00 -21.0%

Away O1.5 32.8% 29.4% 3.40 +11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rizespor1.4

Alanyaspor1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RIZESPOR · PPG 1.30

ALANYASPOR · PPG 0.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rizespor (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -18.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.7%

Alanyaspor (A) 29.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rizespor face Alanyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rizespor a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Alanyaspor 29%, so Rizespor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rizespor and 1.1 for Alanyaspor (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rizespor are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.90 for Alanyaspor. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.5%.

Rizespor vs Alanyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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