Today / Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor / Jarabacoa vs Moca

Jarabacoa vs Moca Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Jarabacoa

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moca

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-113.4%0-26.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.4%2-16.8%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 34.6% 2.89 +6.1%

Draw 32.7% 31.3% 3.20 +4.6%

Away win 30.6% 43.1% 2.32 -29.0%

Over 2.5 37.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.5% — — —

BTTS 42.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 26.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.6%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 0–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jarabacoa1.0

Moca0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JARABACOA · PPG 1.27

MOCA · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

43%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jarabacoa (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.89 · IMPLIED 34.6% EV +6.1%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.6%

Moca (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jarabacoa face Moca in Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jarabacoa a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Moca 31%, so Jarabacoa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jarabacoa and 0.9 for Moca (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jarabacoa are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.18 for Moca.

Jarabacoa vs Moca Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Match Preview & Prediction

More Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor Predictions