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Universidad O&M vs Moca Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:00

Universidad O&M

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Moca

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.5%0-26.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.8%1-113.0%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.7%2-18.0%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.3%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 38.5% 2.60 -5.4%

Draw 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

Away win 35.9% 40.0% 2.50 -10.3%

Over 2.5 45.4% 42.0% 2.38 +8.1%

Over 3.5 28.6% 22.7% 4.40 +15.5%

BTTS 50.3% 51.3% 1.95 -1.9%

Home O1.5 34.6% 34.1% 2.93 +1.4%

Away O1.5 35.3% 35.2% 2.84 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 15%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.3%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 8.7%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad O&M1.2

Moca1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD O&M · PPG 1.01

MOCA · PPG 1.21

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Universidad O&M (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -5.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.1%

Moca (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad O&M face Moca in Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad O&M a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Moca 36%, so Universidad O&M are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Universidad O&M and 1.2 for Moca (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad O&M are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.21 for Moca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Universidad O&M vs Moca Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Match Preview & Prediction

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