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Salcedo vs Universidad O&M Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:00

Salcedo

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Universidad O&M

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.2%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-111.0%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 23.5% 25.0% 4.00 -3.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.9% 29.2% 3.42 +9.1%

BTTS 54.7% 53.5% 1.87 +2.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 53.8% 1.86 -9.2%

Away O1.5 32.3% 25.4% 3.94 +27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salcedo1.8

Universidad O&M1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SALCEDO · PPG 1.82

UNIVERSIDAD O&M · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Salcedo (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

Universidad O&M (A) 23.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salcedo face Universidad O&M in Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salcedo a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Universidad O&M 24%, so Salcedo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Salcedo and 1.0 for Universidad O&M (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salcedo are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.14 for Universidad O&M. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Salcedo vs Universidad O&M Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Match Preview & Prediction

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