Today / Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor / Delfines Del Este vs Universidad O&M

Delfines Del Este vs Universidad O&M Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 20:00

Delfines Del Este

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universidad O&M

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.1%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-111.6%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.2%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

Away win 21.9% 26.3% 3.80 -10.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.34 -2.5%

BTTS 49.1% 54.6% 1.83 -10.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 51.5% 1.94 -6.7%

Away O1.5 24.1% 28.7% 3.48 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfines Del Este1.6

Universidad O&M0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFINES DEL ESTE · PPG 1.86

UNIVERSIDAD O&M · PPG 0.81

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Delfines Del Este (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.8%

Universidad O&M (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfines Del Este face Universidad O&M in Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfines Del Este a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Universidad O&M 22%, so Delfines Del Este are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Delfines Del Este and 0.8 for Universidad O&M (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfines Del Este are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.81 for Universidad O&M. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Delfines Del Este vs Universidad O&M Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Match Preview & Prediction

More Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor Predictions