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Moca vs Salcedo Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 23:00

Moca

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DDD ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Salcedo

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-112.9%0-28.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.6%1-113.2%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.4%2-16.7%2-24.2%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 42.6% 2.35 -29.0%

Draw 32.1% 34.5% 2.90 -6.9%

Away win 37.7% 35.7% 2.80 +5.6%

Over 2.5 43.1% 43.5% 2.30 -0.9%

Over 3.5 23.3% 25.9% 3.86 -6.0%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 39.2% 2.55 -21.2%

Away O1.5 36.6% 35.2% 2.84 +3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0✓ 10.4%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moca1.0

Salcedo1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MOCA · PPG 1.22

SALCEDO · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.22, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Moca (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -29.0%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.9%

Salcedo (A) 37.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moca face Salcedo in Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moca a 30% chance, the draw 32% and Salcedo 38%, so Salcedo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Moca and 1.2 for Salcedo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moca are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.36 for Salcedo. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Moca vs Salcedo Prediction— Dominican-Republic - Liga Mayor

Match Preview & Prediction

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