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Žďár nad Sázavou vs Chotebor Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Group D · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Žďár nad Sázavou

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWD ·

UPCOMING

Chotebor

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 79% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.1%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.0%1-15.9%1-22.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.7%2-18.5%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-112.0%4+-25.9%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 73.5% 1.36 -4.7%

Draw 15.9% 18.2% 5.50 -7.5%

Away win 14.0% 20.0% 5.00 -18.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% 76.9% 1.30 -11.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 56.5% 1.77 -20.3%

BTTS 58.5% 68.5% 1.46 -14.6%

Home O1.5 77.9% 78.7% 1.27 -1.1%

Away O1.5 28.5% 37.0% 2.70 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 70% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 3–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žďár nad Sázavou2.9

Chotebor1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽĎÁR NAD SÁZAVOU · PPG 1.40

CHOTEBOR · PPG 0.62

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

79%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.90 for Home, form 1.40 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Žďár nad Sázavou (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -4.7%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -7.5%

Chotebor (A) 14.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žďár nad Sázavou face Chotebor in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žďár nad Sázavou a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Chotebor 14%, so Žďár nad Sázavou are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Žďár nad Sázavou and 1.0 for Chotebor (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žďár nad Sázavou are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.62 for Chotebor. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +1.4%.

Žďár nad Sázavou vs Chotebor Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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