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Velké Meziříčí vs Ždírec nad Doubravou Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Group D · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 08:15

Velké Meziříčí

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDD ·

UPCOMING

Ždírec nad Doubravou

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.0%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.3%1-110.9%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.9%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 48.8% 2.05 +3.9%

Draw 23.8% 25.6% 3.90 -4.3%

Away win 25.4% 37.0% 2.70 -18.9%

Over 2.5 56.3% 69.4% 1.44 -18.9%

Over 3.5 34.9% 48.5% 2.06 -28.1%

BTTS 55.9% 72.5% 1.38 -22.9%

Home O1.5 50.0% 56.5% 1.77 -11.5%

Away O1.5 32.5% 53.5% 1.87 -39.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velké Meziříčí1.8

Ždírec nad Doubravou1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VELKÉ MEZIŘÍČÍ · PPG 1.34

ŽDÍREC NAD DOUBRAVOU · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Velké Meziříčí (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +3.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.3%

Ždírec nad Doubravou (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velké Meziříčí face Ždírec nad Doubravou in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velké Meziříčí a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Ždírec nad Doubravou 25%, so Velké Meziříčí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Velké Meziříčí and 1.1 for Ždírec nad Doubravou (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velké Meziříčí are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 0.86 for Ždírec nad Doubravou.

Velké Meziříčí vs Ždírec nad Doubravou Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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