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Kuřim vs Sokol Tasovice Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Group D · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:15

Kuřim

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWW ·

UPCOMING

Sokol Tasovice

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.9%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.4%1-24.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-19.3%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.9%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-19.1%4+-25.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 71.4% 1.40 -18.5%

Draw 19.7% 25.0% 4.00 -12.7%

Away win 22.0% 16.7% 6.00 +19.2%

Over 2.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Over 3.5 44.9% 47.2% 2.12 -4.8%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 70.4% 1.42 -5.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 58% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–2 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuřim2.5

Sokol Tasovice1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KUŘIM · PPG 2.25

SOKOL TASOVICE · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kuřim (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -18.5%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.7%

Sokol Tasovice (A) 22.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuřim face Sokol Tasovice in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuřim a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Sokol Tasovice 22%, so Kuřim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Kuřim and 1.1 for Sokol Tasovice (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuřim are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.47 for Sokol Tasovice. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Kuřim vs Sokol Tasovice Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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