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Slovacko W vs Sparta Prague W Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Division D - 23 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Slovacko W

PPG 2.29 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sparta Prague W

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+79.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-15.8%0-210.5%0-312.9%0-4+30.3%1 1-00.8%1-12.8%1-25.2%1-36.3%1-4+15.0%2 2-00.2%2-10.7%2-21.3%2-31.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.4% 40.8% 2.45 -89.2%

Draw 22.3% 30.3% 3.30 -26.4%

Away win 73.3% 40.8% 2.45 +79.6%

Over 2.5 61.2% 65.4% 1.53 -6.4%

Over 3.5 59.5% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob49.5%

A 73% / xG 0.5-3.7 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 12.9%

#2 0–4 11.7%

#3 0–2 10.5%

#4 0–5 8.6%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovacko W0.5

Sparta Prague W3.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 59.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVACKO W · PPG 2.29

SPARTA PRAGUE W · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.29)

Win probability 1X2

Slovacko W (H) 4.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -89.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -26.4%

Sparta Prague W (A) 73.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +79.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovacko W face Sparta Prague W in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovacko W a 4% chance, the draw 22% and Sparta Prague W 73%, so Sparta Prague W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Slovacko W and 3.7 for Sparta Prague W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovacko W are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 3.00 for Sparta Prague W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +79.6%. This match finished 0-0.