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Sparta Brno vs Chotebor Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Group D · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:30

Sparta Brno

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWL ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Chotebor

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.5%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.2%1-14.8%1-22.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.8%2-17.6%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-18.1%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-012.8%4+-114.4%4+-28.2%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 56.5% 1.77 +20.4%

Draw 16.2% 28.6% 3.50 -26.0%

Away win 15.9% 26.7% 3.75 -24.2%

Over 2.5 67.5% 66.7% 1.50 +1.3%

Over 3.5 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 78.4% 66.2% 1.51 +18.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 39.1% 2.56 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 68% / xG 3.2-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 3–0 7.2%

#4 1–1 4.8%

#5 2–0✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Brno3.2

Chotebor1.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA BRNO · PPG 1.27

CHOTEBOR · PPG 0.72

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.06 for Home, form 1.27 vs 0.72 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Brno (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +20.4%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -26.0%

Chotebor (A) 15.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Brno face Chotebor in Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Brno a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Chotebor 16%, so Sparta Brno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Sparta Brno and 1.1 for Chotebor (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Brno are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.72 for Chotebor. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Sparta Brno vs Chotebor Prediction— Czech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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