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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Kasetsart FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:30

Nong Bua Pitchaya

PPG 1.96 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kasetsart FC

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.3%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.8%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 55.6% 1.80 -14.0%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 27.8% 25.4% 3.93 +5.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 39.2% 2.55 -19.2%

BTTS 55.1% 59.5% 1.68 -7.4%

Home O1.5 48.1% 58.5% 1.71 -17.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.7% 2.65 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.1%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nong Bua Pitchaya1.6

Kasetsart FC1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NONG BUA PITCHAYA · PPG 1.96

KASETSART FC · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nong Bua Pitchaya (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -14.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

Kasetsart FC (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.93 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nong Bua Pitchaya face Kasetsart FC in Thailand - Thai League 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Kasetsart FC 28%, so Nong Bua Pitchaya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.1 for Kasetsart FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.17 for Kasetsart FC.

Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Kasetsart FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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