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Mahasarakham United vs Songkhla Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Mahasarakham United

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Songkhla

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.0%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.5%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 47.6% 2.10 +1.4%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 27.5% 34.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.1% 1.75 -5.9%

Over 3.5 32.7% 36.5% 2.74 -10.4%

BTTS 55.9% 63.3% 1.58 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.4% 50.8% 1.97 -4.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.8% 2.45 -18.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mahasarakham United1.7

Songkhla1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAHASARAKHAM UNITED · PPG 1.48

SONGKHLA · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mahasarakham United (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +1.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

Songkhla (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mahasarakham United face Songkhla in Thailand - Thai League 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mahasarakham United a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Songkhla 28%, so Mahasarakham United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mahasarakham United and 1.1 for Songkhla (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mahasarakham United are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 0.75 for Songkhla.

Mahasarakham United vs Songkhla Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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